CPSM备考笔记 MOD2 Effective Supply Management Performance

ROA return on assets 资产回报：净收入除以总资产 计算的三个步骤：

1，计算投资周转率：销售额除以总资产 2，计算利润率：利润除以销售额 3，资产回报=投资周转率x利润率

供应决策的方法：

-决策树分析：包含决策分支、结果分支、结果概率、结果回报和期望价值这些要素。比如对于两个供应商的对比选择。

-2x2组合矩阵（KJ法）：根据供应的风险和对利润的影响分为四个象限：战略品种、杠杆品种、瓶颈品种和商品类（非关键品种） 流程图

流程图能用来发现那些非增值的动作，并使他们最小化。 流程成本测算Process Flow Costing:成本通常被划分为增值的和非增值的

流程改进的方法：

-六西格马：某个流程中每次发生的缺陷仅为0.00034% -精益生产：每个组织机构都应该实现对时间、人员和实物资产的最佳利用。要开展精益运作，组织机构就必须理解可能出现的各种形式的浪费。精益供应管理涉及优化供应群体并与供应商在产品或服务开发中协同工作，关注从原材料供应商开始的总拥有成本和总供应前置时间响应。

问题分析的方法： -SWOT分析

-KT法：Kepner-Tregoe理性分析流程 -因果分析（鱼骨图）

-帕雷托(Pareto)分析：由柱状图和累计百分比图构成，按照事情发生频率的降序来展示事件的频率

可行性分析的方法：

-净现值NPV,Net Present Value：在改进过程的整个生命周期内，所有的现金流入的当前价值，与所有现金流出的当前价值之差。如果NPV为正值，意味由于现金流是正向的，从而项目被批准。

-内部回报率IRR：在什么样的回报上，才能使项目达到盈亏平衡

制定项目时间表

-关键路径法CPM,Critical Path Method: 对于一个复杂的项目中的所有步骤进行分析，找出最短的路径来，而该路经中热合动作的延迟，将使得整个项目的完工延迟 -项目评估及审视技术PERT, Project Evaluation and Review Technique: 一种网路规划技术，来控制一个项目

中的活动。每项活动都给出了其乐观、悲观和可能的耗时估计

创意的类型： -突破性创意 -添加性创意 -衍生性创意 -客户化创意

质量功能展开QFD,Quality Function Deployment: 一种结构性的方法，采用连续的、逐个的what-how矩阵，把用户要求转换成细致的设计规格。 质量屋house of quality: know-how矩阵

仓库的种类： -大宗商品仓库 -散存库 -温控仓库 -日用品仓库 -通用商品仓库 -迷你仓库

仓库的布局类型： -倒置T型仓库流动 -交叉流动仓库 -角落仓库流动 -直通型仓库

确定新仓库的要素： -租还是买 -运输成本 -人力成本 -供应 -环境问题 -政府要求 -政策奖励

常见的物理追踪技术： -条码

-智能发运标签 -RFID -UID

运输的5种方式： -汽车运输 -铁路运输 -空运 -水运 -管道运输

CL, TL, LCL, LTL CL: carload TL: truckload LCL: less car load LTL: less truck load

进出口文件：

-出口文件是出口国家的海关官员要求的，因国家不同而不同。证书、许可证、申报单和商检证书都是出口文件的一部分

-运输单证是船公司、航空货运承运人和汽车运输企业签发的文件，写明了运输条款。提单是运输单证中最重要的文件。

-商检文件是买家要求的，证明物质的质量和数量的文件。-保险文件通常是以政策或证明的形式，证实了所运输的商品已经投保

-付款文件，包括信用证、支付通知、商业发票，提示了支付时的流程

-进口文件，由进口的海关当局要求的文件。最低限度的文件包括申报单和提单，但也会涉及其他文件。

国际商务条款Incoterms: E组发出

EXW-工作场所交货（......指定地点） F组主要运费未付

FCA-货交承运人（指定地点） FAS-船边交货（指定装运港） FOB-船上交货（指定装运港） C组

CFR-成本加运费（指定目的港）

CIF-成本、保险加运费付至（指定目的港） CPT-运费付至（指定目的港） CIP-运费、保险费付至（指定目的地） D组

DAF-边境交货（指定地点）

DES-目的港的船上交货（指定目的港） DEQ-目的港码头交货（指定目的港） DDU-未完税交货（指定目的地） DDP-完税后交货（指定目的地）

资产重置主要应用于一个组织对他剩余或闲置的设备的管理。

牛鞭效应是指客户的微小变化沟通到供应链被变异放大的情况。

库存的ABC分类：一种基于帕雷托80/20原则的方法。

检验库存水平的方法：

-年度实物盘点，与年度损益表和资产负债表紧密联系

-循环盘点cycle counting：一个实物盘点系统，根据ABC分类，将库存分成组，用预先设定的频次进行实物盘点。可以持续进行而无需中止生产和仓库作业。代表的是库存管理的一种事前方法。

库存报告：

-供应周数：平均库存总价值/每周销售额 -平均库存总价值：库存中所有物品价值的总和

-库存周转次数：年销售额（按成本计）/平均库存总价值

库存持有成本，也指库存运营成本，表示组织因持有库存而花费的成本，包括投资的机会成本、存储和操作成本、税、保险、损耗和报废。持有成本通常被规定为一段时间内库存物品价值的一个百分比（例如每年20%）

经济订货量EOQ 价值流映射VSM

质量工具： -PDCA

-直方图：不同数据与他们各自发生的频率的图表 -帕雷托分析 -鱼骨图

-趋势图run charts: -统计过程控制SPC -能力指数Cp, Cpk

能力成熟度模型整合 合同管理成熟度模型

SCOR:supply chain operation reference BSC平衡记分卡 Quality 供应商分类：

-Approved suppliers-suppliers that meet an

organization's selection creteria and have been added to the approved list. the approval process may include submission of samples for testig or ther steps to approve the item or service to be purchased. it may also include inspction of the supplier quality system

-Preferred suppliers-a group of suppliers that an organization has determined meet its expectations for qualit, delivery and/or price and that are able to respond to unexpected changes. Often the organization establishes master price agreements with preferred suppliers. For items where preferred suppliers have been identified, the entire organization is required to buy from these suppliers.

-Partnered suppliers-a close relationship with a supplier. Such relationships are ususally built around long term arrangements, large volume committements, and jont product or service process development. -Certified suppliers-a certified supplier is one whose enterprisewide quality control system is inegrated with the supply management professional's enterprisewide quality control system, and through which a large quality assurance system is established. In this way, total costs associated with quality are reduced through the elimination of duplicated efforts and use of SPC and other quality control processes and information sources. -Prequalified suppliers-prequalified suppliers are added to an organization's approved supplier list when they have passed a supply management organization's preliminary screening. This consits of closely examining the suppliers to determine such factors as financial strength, facilities, location, size, technology, labor status, management, cost, terms, references and other factors. -Certifiable suppliers-a certifiable supplier is one that is not currently certified by the supply management organization but is in the process of becoming certified, may already be certified by another division of the same organization, or may be ertified by another organization.

Acceptance sampling vs Statistical quality control Acceptance sampling is a statistical quality control technique used in deciding to accept or reject a shipment of imput and output. When compared with statistical quality control, acceptance sampling is defined by its occurrence after production has been completed. The focus will be on inspection of incoming materials.

Quality Tools:

-Histograms柱状图：a diagram of values being measured versus the frequency with which each occurs. When a process is running normally, the histogram is depicted by a bell-shaped curve.

-Pareto charts帕雷托图(80/20)：Pareto charts are graphs showing the frequency with which events occur, arranged in order of descending frequency.

-Cause and effect(Ishikawa) diagrams因果图（鱼骨图） -Check sheets查检表: a data-gathering tools that can be used in forming a histogram.

-Scatter diagrams散点图：it's a graph used to analyze the relationship between two variables.

-Flowcharts or process maps流程图：each step is identified in sequence along with its key characteristics, such as time involved.

-Control charts控制表：it's used in statistical process control(SPC) to record, measure and analyze variations in processes to determine whether or not outside influences are causing a process to go out of control.

The New 7 Tool(N7) by a committee of the Japanese Society for QC Technique Development

-箭线图法 (Arrow Diagram Method，ADM): 箭线图法，又称矢线图法，是网络图在质量管理中的应用。箭线图法是制定某项质量工作的最佳日程计划和有效地进行进度管理的一种方法，效率高，特别是运用于工序繁多、复杂、衔接紧密的一次性生产项目上。

-关联图法 (Inter-relationship diagraph): 关联图法，是指用一系列的箭线来表示影响某一质量问题的各种因素之间的因果关系的连线图。

-系统图 (Tree diagrams): 系统图，是指系统寻找达到目的的手段的一种方法，它的具体做法是将把要达到的目的所需要的手段逐级深入.系统法可以系统地掌握问题，寻找到实现目的的最佳手段，广泛应用于质量管理中，如质量管理因果图的分析、质量保证体系的建立、各种质量管理措施的开展等。

-KJ法 (Affinity diagrams): KJ法是日本专家川喜田二郎创造的，KJ是他的名字打头的英文字母缩写。KJ法针对某一问题广泛收集资料，按照资料近似程度，内在联系进行分类整理，抓住事物的本质，找出结论性的解决办法。这种方法是开拓思路、集中集体智慧的好办法，尤其针对未来和未知的问题可以进行不受限制的预见、构思、对质量管理方针计划的制定、新产品新工艺的开发决策和质量保证都有积极的意义

-矩阵图法 (Matrix diagrams): 矩阵图法运用二维、三维……多维矩阵表格，通过多元因素分析找出问题和造成问题的原因。矩阵图主要运用于寻找改进老产品的着眼点和研制新产品、开发市场的战略，以及寻找产品质量问题产生的原因、确立质量保证体系的关键环节等质量管理工作

-矩阵数据分析法 (Matrix Data Analysis): 当矩阵途中各对应因素之间的关系能够定量表示时，矩阵数据分析法是对矩阵图的数据进行整理和分析的一种方法。这种方法主要用于影响产品质量的多因素分析、复杂的质量评价 -PDPC法(Process Decision Program Chart):又称过程决策程序图法，将运筹学中所运用的过程决策程序图应用于质量管理。PDPC法是指在制定达到目标的实施计划时，加以全面分析，对于事态进展中可以设想的各种结果的问题，设想和制定相应的处置方案和应变措施，确定其达到最佳结果的方法。 PDPC法可以在一种预计方案不可行或效率不高出现质量问题时采用第二、第三……方案，确保

最佳效果。PDPC法适用制定质量管理的实施计划以及预测系统可能发生的问题并预先制定措施控制质量管理的全过程 5S

The primary focus of 5S's is to crate a culture of waste reduction and minimization as well as efficiency. They help to develop the discipline needed to improve quality. Such discipline requires cultural change that can occur as a result of implementing the 5S's

质量评估方法： -customer surveys -focus groups焦点小组 -scorecards

-potential distortions(for example, subjectivity of end user, internal training, validity of data) -benchmarking -weighed point -categorical

-cost-ratio 在报价上计入服务、物流等相关的权重 -total acquisition cost(TAC)

Six Sigma process follows the DMAIC procedure(Define, Measure, Analyze, Improve and Control)

Project Management 持续改进的方法： -benchmarking systems -process mapping -process costing -maturity models

-CMMI, capability maturity model-integration -CMMM, contract management maturity model -process improvement metrics(productivity, efficiency, cycle time)

-process improvement methods( for example, lean methods, JIT, six sigma, value stream mapping) -supplier workshops

运行MRP的基本数据： -inventory records

-existing orders, both customer orders and purchase orders

-bill of materials -lead time

MRP已经变成ERP的一个模块。MRP的原理是，根据客户的订单确定产品生产数量，再根据BOM对产品分解到

具体物料，然后制定采购计划和生产计划，采购来必要的零件后，进行生产和装配。

ERP把上述业务进行了拓展，根据采购订单生成应付凭证，根据销售订单生成应收凭证。根据生产计划进行成本核算，然后把这些凭证转移到财务模块，由财务模块进行记账核算。

预测技术：

-最小二乘回归模型Least squares/regression model: a linear regression model assumes that the demand that must be forecast is in a roughtly linear relationship with the independent variable. The indepent variable might be time-related (days, week, months). 所有直线中，到所有采样距离的平方和最小的直线。

-Box-Jenkins, ARIMA差分自回归一栋平均模型。this model will add lag and shift measures to forecast errors to help uncover patterns in the data.考虑延时和偏差的情形

-Winter's model: the model will estimate level, trend and seasonal factors which means that to use the model, do not first apply seasonal adjustments to the basic data. -Judgement sampling判断抽样，又称目的抽样，是凭研究人员的知识、经验，从总体选择有代表性的样本作为受访对象的方法。通常用于调查对象因为地点、知识和意愿等原因无法臭氧的情形。 -future sales based on past sales

补货方法：

-SMI, supplier managed inventory -ABC analysis/classification -Reorder point systems -Fixed order period

-Fixed order quantity, 基于EOQ, Economic Order Quantity

-Kanban, 通常和lean联系在一起，目的是减少订单成本，允许小一点的经济订货量 -Buffer/safety stock

-Obsolete/damage/slow moving

生产计划shceduling processes

-flow manufacturing: the product is made based on customer demand in daily schedules. -level scheduling: 基于组织的产能来安排生产 -package optimization：减少包装的浪费 -shared visibility into inventory

-bull-whip effect 牛鞭效应。供应链的透明度和协同可以降低这种影响

Organization/Department Assessment

绩效管理流程： -what to measure -measurement creation -results evaluation

-KPI, Key Performance Indicatiors

-performance management systems(EVMS-earned value management system, balanced scorecard, value stream)

-corrective action process

可以用于评估的指标：

-财务方面：total cost reduction, year to year cost reductions, supply management competitive advantage, productivity metrics, supply management efficiency, average payment terms

-运营方面：supplier assurance-delivery, supplier quality metrics(field impacts, shipped products quality level, warranty expense), contracted labor utilization rates -信息技术方面：supplier transaction index, total e-spend -寻源方面：leverage spending, diversity supplier spending, supply management social responsibility, direct and indirect spend addressed, new product development participation

-商务控制和关系管理：internal and external client satisfaction surveys of supply management, supplier surveys, supplier report cards

Material and Inventory Management 标准化和简化 优势

-减少无附加值的活动 -减少总体拥有成本 -提高利润 -减少cycle time -改进质量

-降低维护成本，保持延续性

-精简料号，缩减供应商数量，方便大批量采购，降低成本和培训时间 劣势

-依赖少数供应商，会降低竞争，同时减少选择新产品和服务的机会

-可能需要新的合同和新的供应商关系

-需要额外的费用来进行推广、培训、开发变更相关的指导书、流程等

-需要在短期saving和长期收益上进行平衡

标准化适用的情形：

-high-use or high-volume items

-procurement of facilities: 适用于在多处设厂的情形

-procurement of maintenance, repair and operating items(MRO)

-procurement of services 比如餐厅、保管服务、交通、土地和除雪服务等

标准化的来源： -组织内部

-政府，如NIST-National Institute f Standards and Technology -国际，如ISO

-行业协会，如ANSI-American National Standards Institute

物理跟踪技术

-RFID-radio frequency identification devices -bar code

-UID-Unique Identification Device, and IUID-Item Unique Identification Device

存储地点的选择：

-fixed items are stored at permanent locations dedicated to hold only that item.

-random/floating locations are stored at multiple locations.

-overflow locations are used when more inventories come into the warehouse than expected.

-point-of-use locations within the warehouse are usually managed by a visual Kanban method. point-of-use locations are used to store goods close to the consumption area and replaced on a pull signal only when demand is required.

SKU-Stock Keeping Units, are items that are kept in inventory at a specific location.

报废处置渠道： -broker -dealer

-third-party specialist

Logisitics

物流相关的考虑因素： -labor considerations

-transportation availability considerations

-governmental issues(political, tax considerations) -environmental considerations

-channel proximity/modality considerations -average delivery time

-build out versus build up: 建筑物的垂直或者水平扩张

-two dock versus single dock layout -safety considerations -security

-sanitation环境卫生

-warehouse material handling systems(for example, facility consideration regarding forlifts, pickers, etc)

物流相关的4种预算 -fixed-dollar(static) -flexible -zero-level -capital

inpratice, most logistics budegets remain static rather than flexible. a fixed-dollar(static) budget is an estimate of functional expenses. a flexible

budget accounts for seasonal and internal factors that drive activity costs beyond budgeted levels. zero-level budgeting assigns all costs necessary to perform a range of supports services for functional unitls and funding is developed in a zero-up manner, in which funds are justified on the basis of planned activity. capital budgeting specifies the amount and timing of significant financial investments for logistics resources.

COGS-cost of goods sold

运输损失的解决办法： -escalation -corrective action

Forecasting

预测的工具forecasting methodologies/techniques -short term vs. long-term forecasting -macro vs. micro forecasting -delphi method

-correlation/regression analysis -time-series analysis -central tendency -variability

-analysis of cyclical data -trend analysis -decision tree analysis

供应商早期参与ESI-early supplier involvement的好处： -manufacturing process -capital acquisition budget

-product or service development/implementation -cost -quality

-availability -technology -design

-product co-development -cycle time

-two dock versus single dock layout -safety considerations -security

-sanitation环境卫生

-warehouse material handling systems(for example, facility consideration regarding forlifts, pickers, etc)

物流相关的4种预算 -fixed-dollar(static) -flexible -zero-level -capital

inpratice, most logistics budegets remain static rather than flexible. a fixed-dollar(static) budget is an estimate of functional expenses. a flexible

budget accounts for seasonal and internal factors that drive activity costs beyond budgeted levels. zero-level budgeting assigns all costs necessary to perform a range of supports services for functional unitls and funding is developed in a zero-up manner, in which funds are justified on the basis of planned activity. capital budgeting specifies the amount and timing of significant financial investments for logistics resources.

COGS-cost of goods sold

运输损失的解决办法： -escalation -corrective action

Forecasting

预测的工具forecasting methodologies/techniques -short term vs. long-term forecasting -macro vs. micro forecasting -delphi method

-correlation/regression analysis -time-series analysis -central tendency -variability

-analysis of cyclical data -trend analysis -decision tree analysis

供应商早期参与ESI-early supplier involvement的好处： -manufacturing process -capital acquisition budget

-product or service development/implementation -cost -quality

-availability -technology -design

-product co-development -cycle time

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