SSCI论文-高铁旅游效应

Tourism Economics, 2014, 20 (1), 157–169 doi: 10.5367/te.2013.0260

Assessing the impacts of the high-speedtrain on tourism demand in China

YORK QI YAN

School of Humanities, Nanjing Forestry University, 159 Longpan Road, Xuanwu,Nanjing, Jiangsu, China. E-mail: yorknjcn@. (Corresponding author.)

HANQIN QIU ZHANG

School of Hotel and Tourism Management, The Hong Kong Polytechnic University,

Kowloon, Hong Kong.

BEN HAOBIN YE

School of Management, Sun Yat-sun University, Guangzhou, China.

The high-speed railway has been an appropriate embodiment bothof China’s phenomenal rise and of its inherent economic and socialdilemmas, which are assuming growing regional and internationalrelevance. This study develops an econometric model to investigatethe impacts of the Wuhan–Guangzhou high-speed railway ondomestictourism receipts in three Chinese provinces. The auto regressive andmoving average (ARMA) model is integrated into a time seriesapproximation and analysis. The results indicate that, while theprovinces of Guangdong and Hunan have benefited from the high-speed railway, it has limited influence on Hubei province. Thetheoretical contributions and practical implications of the study arealso elaborated.

Keywords:high-speed railway; tourism receipts; ARMA model; China

Advancement in transportation technology has long been regarded as one of thethree pillars underlying the prosperity of modern tourism, the other two beingsoaring disposable income and increased leisure time (Cooper and Wahab, 2001;Fayos-Sola and Bueno, 2001). It has even been argued that tourism itself isabout transport, semantically and practically (Kaul, 1985). A common agree-ment has been reached that the provision of transport infrastructure is anecessary precondition for the development of the tourism industry, and evenThe first author would like to acknowledge the financial support of the Research Fund of NanjingForestry University for Returned Overseas Scholars (No. YJ-201207).

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for the destination dependent on tourism at large (Abeyratne, 1993; Chew,1987; Page, 1994). In China, which is projected to become one of the world’stop destinations by 2020 (UNWTO, 2010), a landmark development in thefield of tourism transportation has been the construction and operation in thepast decade of the China Railway High-speed (CRH) Train. At the end of 2012,18,000 km of high-speed railway had been constructed, and the highest speedthe train had reached was 350 km/h, both taking first position in the world(MOR, 2011). It is planned that by 2020 10,000 km of high-speed railwaywill have been built, connecting all major cities and covering 90% of thecountry’s population.However, ever since the planning of the high-speed railway, it has been thesubject of considerable controversy, which peaked after a fatal collision of twohigh-speed trains in July 2011. In addition to potential safety concerns, themajority of disputes have centred on the economic contributions of the railway,especially in light of the huge costs involved in the construction of the railwayand the train, as well as the business efficiency of the current trains. Whileconsideration from the tourism perspective is assuming growing significance inthe literature on the cost and benefits of CRH trains both in China andinternationally (Shao, 2012), little work has been undertaken to address therelationships between the operation of CRH trains and tourism developmentin local destinations. This paper intends to fill this research gap by analysingthe tourism impact of CRH trains in a comprehensive, consistent and context-relevant manner. Our objectives are twofold: to explore and model the majorfactors pertinent to the tourism impacts of CRH trains; and to evaluate andcompare the economic impacts of CRH trains on the tourism development inselected Chinese destinations.

Literature review

Transport and tourism development

The importance of transport in destination development has been acknowledgedfrom economic, socio-cultural, anthropological, environmental and technicalperspectives (Martin and Witt, 1988; Hall, 1991; Inskeep, 1991; Gunn, 1994;Page, 1994, 1999). Pan (2005) portrays tourism transport as a dynamic andcomplex system constantly interacting with other components of the tourismsystem. In the classic tourism system proposed by Leiper (1990), transportserves as the key channel linking traveller generating and destination regions.According to elaborations on core–periphery interactions by Hohl and Tisdell(1995), transport provides the very medium through which resources, capital,technologies, industries as well as markets are clustered, thereby rippling theeconomic potential of the core to the peripheral regions. In this sense, transportplays an important role not only in shaping the relationships between the coreand peripheral regions, but also in shifting such relationships should there bechanges in the transport contexts (Pearce, 2002). Therefore, the dynamics ofregional tourism industries hinge greatly on the transport conditions, especiallywhen it comes to those regions under the transformation from reliance onexternal support to self-sustainability (Prideaux, 2000).

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At the destination level, meanwhile, the issue of accessibility has long beenregarded as the main facilitating and inhibiting factor in local tourismdevelopment(Mill and Morrison, 1998; Goeldner and Ritchie, 2003). Fordestinations in underdeveloped countries, transport always top the priority listin feasibility studies of local tourism endeavours. At the other end of the scale,for high-end attractions, such as tourism resorts, a sound transportinfrastructureis a prerequisite for the provision of high-quality products and experiences(Prideaux, 2000). Prideaux (2005) also recognizes the upgrading of transportconditions and facilities as an effective approach in contributing to thesustainabledevelopment of resort destinations, especially during the renovation stages oftheir lifecycles. In addition, transport underlies inter-destination and intra-destination networks, and the categorizations of different destinations thusderived can shed light on optimization of destination attractiveness andcooperation(Lew and McKercher, 2002). For instance, it has been claimed thatgateway hub cities are in an excellent position to stimulate inter-modaltransport,on one hand, and enlarge access to the further hinterland, on the other(Van Klink and Van den Berg, 1998; Palhares, 2003).From a tourist’s perspective, the influence of transport on the decision-making process can be incorporated into elaborations on the theories of distancedecay and market access. The theory of distance decay was first put forwardby Bull (1991). It proposes an inverse relationship between the demand fortravel and the distance to be covered, with the transport considerations exertinga moderating influence. In addition, transportation costs usually take adominantproportion of the trip expense – 30 to 40%, transport can be regarded as aproxy for the cost factor, which is another inhibiting force on travel demand(Mill and Morrison, 1998). Hence, the manipulation of the potential tourist’sperceptions of transport, with the time factor inherently involved with it, canunleash travel demand to an extent few other approaches can rival (McKercher,1998a). Furthermore, several authors have also questioned the validity ofdistancedecay theory by revealing the existence of so-called effective tourismexclusion zones at some distance – not necessarily a great distance – where theremay be little or no demand and beyond which some kind of secondary peakdemand can be observed (McKercher and Lew, 2003). Compensating for theimpacts of such zones, favourable transport factors can effectively maintain andboost motivations of travel.In addition, as has been pointed out by McKercher (1998b), according tothe theory of market access, given equality of the products offered, thecompetitiveadvantage will go to the destination with the greater proximity tothe market. Market access can be measured by the relative difference in thetime, cost, distance or effort required to access different destinations (Pearce1989). In this sense, transport conditions are positively correlated with theextent of market access, and thereby contribute to the consolidation ofcompetitiveadvantages of the destination. McKercher (1998b) goes further andspecifies the two practical benefits that can be gained by destinations thatallocate a substantial degree of recognition and emphasis to their marketaccess.For one thing, stronger market access will guarantee sufficientvisitations,especially from people who cherish time and effort spent en routeas precious commodities. For another thing, places with stronger market accesswill have a better chance of functioning as secondary locales of attraction

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diverting would-have-been transit consumer flows heading to their primarydestinations.

Railways and tourism

The railway has long been identified with modern tourism (Li and Liu, 2005).Compared with other modes of transportation, railways are seen as having suchcompetitive advantages as safety, convenience, timeliness, flexibility andeconomicvalue for the tourist. The railway is of vital significance todestinationslocated in a geographically challenging terrain where air transport is unpractical(Hall, 2000). Also, charted train journeys are regarded as the prototypes of theirair and cruise counterparts (Mill and Morrison, 1998). Frandberg (1998)suggeststhat the railway should be the ideal choice for the developmentofsustainable tourism. According to Mill and Morrison (1998), railwaytransportation is usually characterized by multi-stakeholder interrelationships,covering all major components of the destination tourism system. Particularly,given the enormous financial costs concerned with railway infrastructure, Murphyet al (2000) consider support from the government to be a crucial factor of thesuccess of destinations dependent on railway transportation, with Europe beinga case in point.Besides, there has also been an academic consensus that the railway itself andthe trains running on it have become a unique category of tourist attractionsin their own right (Dallen, 2007). Papatheodorou (2001) attributed theemergenceof this new form of attraction to both the lineage of the railway tripwith the broader travel experiences, and the cultural values concomitant withsuch trips. Accordingly, the special segment of railway tourists can be profiledand targeted in marketing. Hall (2000) proposed the initiation of innovativethemes and the integration of other products – especially sightseeing andentertainment – in destination planning to cater to this market segment moreeffectively.

Related research

Empirical research on the interrelationships between transport and tourismdevelopments has largely been lacking, not to mention studies exploring theconsequences of railway developments in tourism terms. Generally, transport-related variables have been incorporated into broader models of forecastingtourism demand through applications of such approaches as regression and timeseries analyses (Song and Li, 2008). The costs of transportation, in bothtemporal and monetary terms, have also constituted models for evaluatingtourist expenditures and the mechanisms of the absorption of those expendituresinto the local economy of the destination (Li and Liu, 2005). Khadaroo andSeetanah (2008) employ a gravity framework in confirming the importance oftransport infrastructure in determining the tourism attractiveness ofdestinations.More specifically, Zhang and Lu (2002) compare differentfunctionsof rail, highway and air transport in tourism development andelaborateon their respective strengths and deficiencies. Furthermore, a uniquesociological perspective of transportation is provided by Yeoman (2006) on howtransportation might help enhance authentic experiences of the tourist.When it comes to the issue of high-speed railway and tourism, existing

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research efforts have concentrated on cases in Europe, where the high-speedrailway was first completed and operated, in France in 1983. Beneficial effectsthat can be brought about by the high-speed rail to local tourism developmenthave been addressed, particularly the cultivation of new market segments, likebusiness and urban tourism (Masson and Petiot, 2009). In particular, theenvironmental advantages represented by the high-speed mode have often beenraised in response to challenges concerning its costs (Nakagawa and Hatoko,2007). However, potential challenges that could arise, while still lackingevidencefrom empirical examinations, are highlighted. For instance, theavailabilityof high-speed railway may deprive business opportunities for othercomponents of the tourism industry – for example, accommodation nights inhotels (Bull, 1991). Furthermore, the effects of high-speed rail could beunbalancedin spatial terms, with gains for one destination being losses foranother along the route (Sinclair and Stabler, 1997). Masson and Petiot (2009)further argue that high-speed rail should not be treated as a panacea for tourism,and the existing tourism potential of the destination, with no exception of itscurrent transport infrastructure, should be taken into account for high-speedrail to exert positive effects on destination development. At the same time,managerial challenges and financial concerns have further clouded the prospectsof high-speed railways and the confidence of both public and private investors,with the latest evidence in Taiwan (Rong and Zhang, 2010).Since CRH trains have been in operation for only a few years, studies ontheir tourism impacts have been quite limited, mostly centring around generalplanning and development strategies (Hu, 2010; Zhang, 2010; Huang, 2011).Considering the scale of the high-speed railway in China, as well as recentcontroversies over its economic and social effects, it is imperative in boththeoretical and practical senses to explore the economic values of the CRHtrains in tourism terms. In this paper we aim to assess the tourism impactsof CRH trains in a comprehensive, consistent and context-relevant manner.Specifically, the objectives are to explore and model the major factors pertinentto the tourism impacts of CRH trains, and to evaluate and compare theeconomic impacts of CRH trains on tourism development in selected Chinesedestination areas.

Methodology

This study selects the three provinces along the Wuhan–Guangzhou high-speedrailway as its research samples; namely, Hubei, Hunan and Guangdong. Theselection is based on the peculiarities of this route, which contribute to thevalidity of the study. First, the route spans 11 destinations in three provincesin the middle and south of China with varying levels of economic and socialdevelopment. For example, the destination of Guangzhou in Guangdong, theterminus of the railway, is an internationalized metropolitan city with richtourist attractions and advanced infrastructure. The destination at the other end,Wuhan in Hubei province, is a regional centre in the middle of China. For citiessuch as Shaoguan in Guangdong and Xiangtan in Hunan, where the economiesare much less developed, pro-poor tourism styles have been long practised.Therefore, investigations of these destinations can yield the broadest picture of

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the tourism impacts brought by the high-speed railway. Second, the Wuhan–Guangzhou route was the longest high-speed railway – nearly 1,070 km – withthe fastest trains at the time of its completion in December 2009, attractingconsiderable attention from both policymakers and the mass media. So assessingthe tourism impacts of this route is expected to attenuate discourses from thetourism field in the broader public debate. Third, while there have already beenhigh-speed railways connecting more representative Chinese destinations suchas Beijing and Shanghai, the effects of mega events like the 2008 OlympicGames in Beijing and 2010 World Expo in Shanghai may have overwhelmedthe influences of the high-speed railway itself.In accordance with the requirements of the construction of this model, theperiods of January 2008 to December 2009, preceding the operation of thehigh-speed railway, and January 2010 to December 2011, after the start of itsoperation, are chosen as the time series frame.This study expresses the tourism receipts of the three provinces of Guangdong,Hubei and Hunan during the research period as a function of income, pricesand the high-speed railway as follows:

Y = f(X, P, D)

where Y is the tourism receipts of the province; X is the disposable incomeof the tourists visiting the province; P is the price of tourism goods and servicesin the province; and D is a dummy variable indicating the high-speed railway.We use only domestic tourism receipts as the measure of the high-speedrailway’s tourism impacts on the three provinces. The exclusion of internationaltourism receipts is based on the rationale that, compared with the volume ofnational domestic tourism receipts, which totalled around US$30.60 billion,US$27.27 billion and US$62.41 billion in 2011 in Hubei, Hunan andGuangdong, respectively, that of international revenue is quite small (at US$0.94billion, US$1.04 billion and US$13.91 billion in 2011, respectively), thereforeexerting limited influence on the overall picture.Meanwhile, the disposable income of the domestic tourists to the province(X) is measured as the average of those of the top three origins. In accordancewith criteria set by Dwyer et al (2000), the consumer price index (CPI) in theprovince is used as a proxy for the price of tourism goods and services in theprovince (P). The data above can be obtained from the Yearbook of China TourismStatistics, as well as the Annual Report of Economic and Social Developments of therespective provinces. Finally, a value of 0 is assigned to D for the time seriesperiod before the operation of the high-speed railway, and a value of 1 isassigned to D for the period after the start of operation.Specifically, the regression model of this study is constructed as follows:log(Yt)= β0 + β1log(Xt) + β2CPIt + β3log(Xt)*D

Taking cognizance of its peculiarities, this study employs the auto regressiveand moving average (ARMA) model to refine the time series relationshipsbetween the dependent and independent variables. ARMA is based on theassumption of a stationery time series with ‘smooth’ fluctuations along a time-invariant mean (Chatfield, 2004). It consists of three components of auto

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regression, individual dependence and moving average (Neuman, 2000). ARMAis considered suitable for prediction uses with desired accuracy and scaleparsimony, particularly for estimating the significance of certain variables to thesystem (Monserud, 1986). Furthermore, ARMA contributes to model perfectionby removing the effects of potential persistence factors irrelevant to the variablesunder investigation (Chatfield, 2004). Since the introduction of high-speedrailway can be regarded as a ‘shock’ event to the tourism development of theinvestigated localities, AMRA is deemed as an appropriate statistic platform tocompare the domestic tourism receipts of the three provinces before theintroductionof the high-speed railway with those after the railway introduction,from which the effects of the high-speed railway can be delineated. For themodel testing, the 8.0 version of the software of Statistic Analysis System (SAS)is utilized.

Results

First, a linear test is conducted to explore the regressive nature of the proposedrelationships as follows:

yt = a + bxt + xt2 + ... + xtn + et.

Results of the linear testing are presented in Table 1. According to correspond-ing criteria concerning the value of Dw, the relevance of time series data forHubei province is rejected, indicating little difference between the period beforethe introduction of the high-speed railway and the period after. In other words,the impact of the high-speed railway on domestic tourism receipts of Hubeiare indistinct. The linear regression model for Hubei province is confirmed asfollows:

log(Yt) = –1.0978 + 1.3526log(Xt) – 0.0421 CPIt + 0.071log(Xt)*D(–0.47) (3.41) (–3.43) (5.94).

In contrast, for the provinces of Hunan and Guangdong, respective Dw valueshave exhibited satisfactory time series relevance (sig < 0.05). Thus, the high-speed railway has exerted a distinct influence on the domestic tourism receiptsof these two provinces. To further delineate the influence, an ARMA model isapplied to the series of the linear regression model as follows:

Table 1.Results of linear testing.

Dw

Hunan

Hubei

Guangdong1.62172.27921.6434Significance0.04630.70140.0457R20.98310.78110.9999F247.5252.3511747.2

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xt = φ0 + φ1xt–1 + φ2xt–2 + Λ + φpxt–p + εt φp ≠ 0 E(εt) = 0, Var(εt) = σ2ε, E(εtεs) = 0, s ≠ t Exsεt = 0, s < t.

After the integrated calculation, the respective final linear regression modelsfor Guangdong and Hunan provinces are presented as follows:

Guangdong:

log(Yt)=0.70817log(Xt)–0.00084CPIt+0.04937log(Xt)*D+0.13833AR(4)(7.69) (–0.12) (7.34) (3.84).

Specifically, from January 2008 to December 2009:

log(Yt) = 0.70817log(Xt) – 0.00084CPIt + 0.13833AR(4).

From January 2010 to December 2011:

log(Yt) = 0.75754log(Xt) – 0.00084CPIt + 0.13833AR(4).

Hunan:

log(Yt) = 2.6431 + 0.64601log(Xt) – 0.00154CPIt + 0.0608log(Xt)*D+ 0.12643AR(4)

(0.6) (8.86) (-0.123) (4.08) (4.04).

Specifically, from January 2008 to December 2009:

log(Yt) = 2.6431 + 0.64601log(Xt) – 0.00154CPIt + 0.12643AR(4).From January 2010 to December 2011:

log(Yt) = 2.6431 + 0.70232log(Xt) – 0.00154CPIt + 0.12643AR(4).All of the β values are significant at 0.05 level. Therefore, the goodness-of-fitindices are achieved satisfactorily, and the proposed model is confirmed.Domestictourism receipts in Guangdong and Hunan provinces from January2008 to December 2011 can be validly accounted for by the disposable incomeof the domestic tourists, the CPI level in the two provinces, as well as theoperation of the high-speed railway. For Guangdong, before the operation ofthe high-speed railway (D = 0), an increase of 0.70817% in domestic tourismreceipts is recorded for every 1% growth in the disposable income of thedomestic tourists; after the operation of the high-speed railway (D = 1), withevery 1% surge of disposable income, there is a rise of 0.75754% of domestic

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tourism receipts. In terms of Hunan province, before the operation of the high-speed railway (D = 0), an increase of 0.64601% in domestic tourism receiptsis recorded for every 1% growth in the disposable income of domestic tourists;after the operation of the high-speed railway (D = 1), with every 1% surge ofdisposable income, there is a rise of 0.70232% of domestic tourism receipts.Hence, the high-speed railway has been proved to render significantimprovementon the domestic tourism receipts in Guangdong and Hunanprovinces, while the domestic tourism income in Hubei province has benefitedlittle from the high-speed railway.

Discussion and implications

The high-speed railway is one of the few public projects in which so manyeconomic, political and environmental stakes are combined (Masson and Petiot,2009). This study takes a systematic econometric approach to analyse thetourism impacts of a typical high-speed railway in south China, making its duecontribution to theoretical and practical elaborations on the tourismimplicationsof the high-speed railway. Taking cognizance of the scale ofdevelopmentof the high-speed railway in China, such elaborations may wellassume significance at a global level. First, the results of this study empiricallyecho those of previous research proposing a positive relationship betweentransportationand tourism development (Prideaux, 2000; Pan, 2005). In thecases of Guangdong and Hunan provinces since the end of 2009 considerableeffects on local domestic tourism receipts have been detected from the operationof the high-speed railway. Such effects become all the more pronounced whenthe respective characteristics of the two provinces are taken into account, withGuangdong a traditional power player in China’s tourism development andHunan a less developed inland region in which tourism has begun to prosperonly recently. In this sense, the impact of the high-speed railway are widespreadand profound, benefiting destinations with varying infrastructure conditionsand stages of development. In fact, comparing the specific impact, greatergrowth is recorded in Hunan than in Guangdong, thus consolidating previoustheoretical discussions that recommend a greater leverage of transportationdevelopment for less developed destinations (Palhares, 2003). There have alsobeen reports that destinations in the two provinces that are not on the railwayroute have been benefiting from the spill-over effects of the high-speed railway,with some achieving a growth of 100% in tourism receipts after the railwaystarted to operate.Meanwhile, the profound tourism influence of the high-speed railway can bereflected in the peculiarities of the tourism products in the two provinces.Guangdong, as the epicentre of manufacturing industries and gateway forneighbouring Southeast Asian source markets, is primarily characterized bybusiness, vacationing and cultural tourism products, while natural scenery andethnic minority-based products are the dominant ‘selling points’ for Hunan.Our observations of the effects of the high-speed railway on local domestictourism receipts, therefore, are consistent with the postulations of Hall (2000)and Dallen (2007) that transportation can contribute to the optimization oftourism product structures and enhance the overall attractiveness of the broader

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destination. Particularly, since tourists from Guangdong have been thetraditionalleading source market for Hunan (Huang, 2011), the high-speedrailway has brought new opportunities for inter-destination cooperation andintegration, as noted by Lew and McKercher (2002).From a consumer’s perspective, the results of this study indicate that thehigh-speed railway has stimulated demand for travel, which is described by Hu(2010) as a facilitator in the decision making and consumer behaviour stages.The effects of the high-speed railway on tourists have been most evident in theshortening of travel time, from 11 hours to 3 hours from Wuhan to Guangzhou.The removal of the time restraint has led to a diversification of tourists’ travelmodes, especially with the growing popularity of weekend short-haul themedtours. Further eviedence of this is the stiff competition posed by the high-speedrail to the airline industry along the route, and the response of the airlines,which included lowering prices, greater flexibility in flight schedules and,ultimately, connection packages with the high-speed trips. All this means awider range of choices for the tourist and may have a profound influence onmany aspects of their ‘travel career’ beyond increased spending. In addition,considering the relatively high prices of the high-speed tickets (at aroundRMB450 (US$1 = RMB6.2) per person per trip for Wuhan to Guangzhouagainst RMB330 for a normal speed train), it can be anticipated that the high-speed railway has become a tourist attraction in its own right.Furthermore, this study has identified limited impacts of the high-speedrailway on domestic tourism receipts of Hubei province. This finding isunderpinnedby the argument of Masson and Petiot (2009) that the effects ofthe high-speed railway are unbalanced and even polarized. The most convincingrationale for this finding is the small number of high-speed railway stops inHubei – three, compared to four in Guangdong and eight in Hunan. Thesynergistic effects of the high-speed rail are less articulated. In addition, exceptfor the capital city of Wuhan, which is a regional metropolitan centre, Hubeiprovince is primarily characterized by second-tier destinations that depend onnatural scenery. Thus, there may be polarization repercussions of the high-speedrailway between node destinations along the high-speed route and the moreperipheral ones, especially the rural areas. Meanwhile, for destinations relianton ticket income from homogenous tourist attractions such as natural landscape,tourist visitation may be siphoned off by the high-speed railway through thereduction of overnight stays. However, it should be mentioned here that thehigh-speed railway may have affected general tourism development in Hubeiat the current stage, but that positive impacts may be manifest in the longer-term.In addition to concurring with existing theoretical elaborations and high-lighting some new findings, the results of this study also have practicalimplications for the development of the high-speed railway in China,particularlyfrom a tourism perspective. After the exponential growth inconstructionand operation over the past decade, the high-speed railway hasbeen the subject of heated debate among people from all walks of life withregard to its economic and social impacts. The findings of this study, althoughlimited to the tourism field, provide solid evidence for the positive effects ofthe high-speed railway on the development of an industry that is assumingrising significance in the Chinese economy, thereby contributing to better

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articulation of the current public discourse on the high-speed railway.Meanwhile,destination planners can initiate corresponding productdevelopmentand marketing strategies to explore more fully the vast potentialbrought about by the high-speed railway. Regional cooperation, enrichment oftourism products and integration of the broader tourist transport infrastructureare appropriate strategies. With regard to industry practitioners, moreinnovativemarketing campaigns should be devised to incorporate the high-speed rail components into the general travel package. An issue worthy ofimmediate attention is the design of itineraries that will ensure both timeefficiency and experience optimization (Zhang, 2010). At the same time, effortsshould be made to improve the service quality of the staff from all componentsof the industry, so that the ‘software aspects’ of the tourism industry can keepabreast with the ‘hardware aspects’, as represented by the high-speed railway.This study is not without its limitations. First, there is room for refinementof the econometric model used. Other important independent variables can beintegrated into the current model to enhance its validity and approximation ofreality. Especially, factors relevant to inbound tourism such as exchange ratesand international transport expenses could be explored, through which a morecomplete delineation of the effects of the high-speed railway on local tourismdevelopment can be derived. Meanwhile, the periods studied could be extendedto include more data for model testing, and better models than ARMA couldbe used to produce more tenable results, particularly in terms of diminishingthe influence of external factors. Furthermore, since this study focuses only onthe economic effects of the high-speed railway at the macro level, researchefforts on the decision-making and travel behaviour of tourists taking the high-speed train would definitely enhance our understanding of the tourismimplicationsof the high-speed railway. Last but not least, the research subjectcould be expanded to other high-speed routes in China and around the world,and the samples could be extended to include international visitors, thusenhancing the reliability of results.

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